VPS 1-0 Ilves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ilves at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VPS vs Ilves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 5 as VPS welcome Ilves to Lemonsoft Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VPS — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VPS's home record at Lemonsoft Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Ilves have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ilves have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ilves's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of VPS's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for VPS, 3 for Ilves and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Ilves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Ilves trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 59% versus Ilves 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 59% | Ilves 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.78 xG and Ilves 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.079 / defence 1.150 | Ilves attack 1.280 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.628. Ilves have an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — the away xG of 2.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 VPS games / 26 Ilves games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: VPS 29% | Draw 19% | Ilves 52%. Fair-value odds: VPS 3.45 | Draw 5.26 | Ilves 1.92. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.17. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.17 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 2.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.17 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VPS 80% | Ilves 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 29% | Draw 19% | Ilves 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 76% | xG VPS 1.78 / Ilves 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.079 / def 1.150 | Ilves attack 1.280 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.628 • Poisson stance: Ilves (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
VPS xG
Expected Goals
2.40
Ilves xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Ilves kick off?
VPS vs Ilves kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 2 May 2025 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Ilves?
VPS 1 - 0 Ilves.
Where is VPS vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Ilves part of?
VPS vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 29% chance of winning, Ilves a 52% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both VPS and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Ilves?
Record (6 meetings): VPS 2W | Draws 1 | Ilves 3W.
What form are VPS and Ilves in?
VPS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Ilves (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates VPS's attack at 1.08x the league average against Ilves's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 2.40 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
29%
3.48
19%
5.14
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
1 – 1
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
VPS xG
Total xG
4.17
2.40
Ilves xG
3.48
29%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.09
Clean Sheet
9%
10.97
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
3%
38.14
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are VPS and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for VPS and 2.40 for Ilves, a combined total of 4.17.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VPS's recent record stands at 28W 9D 17L from 54 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 15L across 54 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VPS on 1.72 PPG, Ilves on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VPS have managed 13W 6D 7L from 26 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 10W 7D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
VPS are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.69 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Current Season
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Ilves in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 28W 9D 17L in their last 54 games (1.72 PPG), while Ilves have gone 24W 15D 15L in their last 54 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Ilves away?
VPS's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.73 PPG; Ilves away: 1.42 PPG.
Have VPS or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ilves in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VPS and Ilves runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VPS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
VPS's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VPS
1
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 5, Ilves have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Ilves 0-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Ilves?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Ilves see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 65%, Ilves 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (VPS) and 31% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Ilves in 38%; Ilves in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of VPS's recent matches and 38% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of VPS's recent games and 31% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and Ilves tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ilves in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VPS defy the odds to beat Ilves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Ilves 1-0 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.78 xG and Ilves 2.40 xG, a combined 4.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ilves landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.08 / defence 1.15 against Ilves attack 1.28 / defence 1.04, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it VPS 29% | Draw 19% | Ilves 52%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual VPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 59%, Ilves 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.72 PPG, Ilves 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.