VPS 2-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as VPS take on Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Mariehamn travel to Lemonsoft Stadion to take on VPS. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 May 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, VPS have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Lemonsoft Stadion, VPS have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lemonsoft Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mariehamn stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
VPS are in the better shape of the two on current Veikkausliiga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for VPS, 0 for Mariehamn and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Mariehamn trading profile (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VPS 55% versus Mariehamn 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 68% | Mariehamn 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 0.88 xG and Mariehamn 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.711 / defence 0.818 | Mariehamn attack 0.991 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.039 / away 1.010. VPS's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 VPS games / 26 Mariehamn games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: VPS 31% | Draw 42% | Mariehamn 27%. Fair-value odds: VPS 3.23 | Draw 2.38 | Mariehamn 3.70. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VPS 50% | Mariehamn 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 31% | Draw 42% | Mariehamn 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 37% | xG VPS 0.88 / Mariehamn 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.711 / def 0.818 | Mariehamn attack 0.991 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.039 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
VPS xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Mariehamn xG
37%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Mariehamn kick off?
VPS vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 5 May 2023 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Mariehamn?
VPS 2 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is VPS vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Mariehamn part of?
VPS vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 31% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 27% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both VPS and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Mariehamn?
Record (1 meetings): VPS 0W | Draws 1 | Mariehamn 0W.
What form are VPS and Mariehamn in?
VPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VPS's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.27
42%
2.38
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
VPS xG
Total xG
1.69
0.82
Mariehamn xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.38
42%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 15.1 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are VPS and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for VPS and 0.82 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VPS's recent record stands at 13W 5D 13L from 31 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 13L across 31 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VPS on 1.42 PPG, Mariehamn on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VPS have managed 3W 3D 8L from 14 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.42 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 4W 2D 8L across 14 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
VPS are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.55 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Current Season
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 13W 5D 13L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 11W 7D 13L in their last 31 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Mariehamn away?
Mariehamn's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 0.86 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VPS and Mariehamn runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
VPS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jun 2025, when VPS won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VPS
3
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 6, Mariehamn have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when VPS 4-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Mariehamn?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 50%, Mariehamn 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (VPS) and 43% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: VPS have failed to score in 36% of games; Mariehamn in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of VPS's recent matches and 50% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VPS vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of VPS's recent games and 43% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and Mariehamn tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out Mariehamn 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Mariehamn 2-1 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 0.88 xG and Mariehamn 0.82 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. VPS beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.71 / defence 0.82 against Mariehamn attack 0.99 / defence 1.18, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it VPS 31% | Draw 42% | Mariehamn 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The actual VPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 68%, Mariehamn 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.42 PPG, Mariehamn 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.