VPS 1-1 Gnistan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VPS at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VPS vs Gnistan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VPS and Gnistan meet at Lemonsoft Stadion in Veikkausliiga (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
VPS (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VPS at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gnistan's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gnistan away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward VPS. A 0.60 PPG lead over Gnistan (1.10 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from VPS's last 10 home games and Gnistan's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of VPS's games and 80% of Gnistan's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for VPS, 2 for Gnistan and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2025, ended VPS 0–0 Gnistan — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
VPS — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Gnistan — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VPS 73% and Gnistan 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VPS 66% | Gnistan 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.27 xG and Gnistan 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.051 / defence 1.028 | Gnistan attack 0.944 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 0.969. Data: built from VPS's last 27 games and Gnistan's last 27.
Result probabilities: VPS 43% | Draw 30% | Gnistan 27%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.30 | Draw 3.35 | Gnistan 3.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VPS are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VPS if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches — though recent form (VPS's last 10 home games and Gnistan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: VPS 70% (last 10 home games) | Gnistan 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Gnistan | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 6 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 43% | Draw 30% | Gnistan 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG VPS 1.27 / Gnistan 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.051 / def 1.028 | Gnistan attack 0.944 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.255 / away 0.969 • Poisson stance: VPS (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
VPS xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Gnistan xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VPS vs Gnistan FAQs
What time does VPS vs Gnistan kick off?
VPS vs Gnistan kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Gnistan?
VPS 1 - 1 Gnistan.
Where is VPS vs Gnistan being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Gnistan part of?
VPS vs Gnistan is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 6) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Gnistan?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 43% chance of winning, Gnistan a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Gnistan?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both VPS and Gnistan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will VPS vs Gnistan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates VPS's attack at 1.05x the league average against Gnistan's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gnistan's attack (0.94x) against VPS's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from VPS's last 27 games and Gnistan's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
43%
2.30
30%
3.35
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
VPS xG
Total xG
2.21
0.94
Gnistan xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
7%
13.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VPS vs Gnistan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Gnistan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are VPS and Gnistan expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for VPS and 0.94 for Gnistan, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Gnistan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VPS's recent record stands at 19W 13D 23L from 55 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Gnistan, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 22L across 55 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for VPS against 1.22 for Gnistan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, VPS have managed 10W 8D 10L from their last 28 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gnistan's away record stands at 7W 9D 12L across their last 28 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
VPS are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Gnistan are on 1.45 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VPS have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Gnistan in 64%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
Gnistan
Current Season
VPS (Home) vs Gnistan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VPS
Blended
Gnistan
Current Season
❓ VPS vs Gnistan Form FAQs
What form are VPS and Gnistan in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Gnistan have gone 17W 16D 22L in their last 55 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Gnistan away?
VPS's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.36 PPG; Gnistan away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between VPS and Gnistan, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gnistan won Gnistan 5-1 VPS on 8 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VPS have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gnistan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
VPS
4
Draws
3
Gnistan
Recent Meetings
❓ VPS vs Gnistan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Gnistan?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, VPS have won 2, Gnistan have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Gnistan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Gnistan 5-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Gnistan?
Gnistan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for VPS, 68% for Gnistan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VPS) and 64% (Gnistan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Gnistan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VPS vs Gnistan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VPS and Gnistan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of VPS's games and 68% of Gnistan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VPS and Gnistan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of VPS's matches and 64% of Gnistan's.
Do VPS and Gnistan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of VPS's recent matches and 79% of Gnistan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VPS and Gnistan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS and Gnistan finished level at 1-1 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.27 xG and Gnistan 0.94 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Gnistan attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 43% | Draw 30% | Gnistan 27%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 66%, Gnistan 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Gnistan's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.27 PPG, Gnistan 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gnistan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.