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Shock result as VPS defy the odds to beat SJK 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VPS beat SJK 2-3 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 2.20 xG and VPS 1.22 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. VPS outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.12 / defence 0.85 against VPS attack 0.92 / defence 1.28, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SJK 60% | Draw 20% | VPS 20%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a VPS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 61%, VPS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SJK's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

VPS's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SJK 1.53 PPG, VPS 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights