SJK 2-3 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SJK host VPS at OmaSp Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 12 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SJK — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
SJK's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at OmaSp Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, VPS have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VPS's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SJK at 0.90 PPG versus VPS's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SJK, 3 for VPS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–4 with VPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SJK in-play tendencies (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
VPS in-play tendencies (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 60% versus VPS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 61% | VPS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 2.20 xG and VPS 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.116 / defence 0.854 | VPS attack 0.921 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.548. VPS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing SJK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 SJK games / 27 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 60% | Draw 20% | VPS 20%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | VPS 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SJK (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SJK 70% | VPS 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: OmaSp Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 12 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 60% | Draw 20% | VPS 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG SJK 2.20 / VPS 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.116 / def 0.854 | VPS attack 0.921 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: SJK (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.22
VPS xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs VPS kick off?
SJK vs VPS kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 12 May 2025 at OmaSp Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs VPS?
SJK 2 - 3 VPS.
Where is SJK vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at OmaSp Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs VPS part of?
SJK vs VPS is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 60% chance of winning, VPS a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SJK and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and VPS?
Record (6 meetings): SJK 2W | Draws 1 | VPS 3W.
What form are SJK and VPS in?
SJK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. VPS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SJK's attack rating (1.12) and VPS's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
60%
1.67
20%
5.00
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
SJK xG
Total xG
3.42
1.22
VPS xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
11%
9.04
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
2%
44.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are SJK and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for SJK and 1.22 for VPS, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs VPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SJK's recent record stands at 24W 15D 18L from 57 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 28W 10D 19L across 57 games — 1.65 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SJK on 1.53 PPG, VPS on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SJK have managed 13W 6D 10L from 29 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 15W 3D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.66 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SJK are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.51 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
VPS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and VPS in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 24W 15D 18L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while VPS have gone 28W 10D 19L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.55 PPG; VPS away: 1.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SJK and VPS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
VPS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when VPS won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting VPS specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SJK
1
Draws
6
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 3, VPS have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SJK and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when VPS 1-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 69%, VPS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for SJK and 62% for VPS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VPS in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play VPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of SJK's games and 52% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of SJK's matches and 62% of VPS's.
Do SJK and VPS tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, VPS in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VPS defy the odds to beat SJK 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat SJK 2-3 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 2.20 xG and VPS 1.22 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. VPS outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.12 / defence 0.85 against VPS attack 0.92 / defence 1.28, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 60% | Draw 20% | VPS 20%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a VPS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 61%, VPS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
VPS's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.53 PPG, VPS 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.