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Dominant SJK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Mariehamn.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SJK beat Mariehamn 4-1 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.90 xG and Mariehamn 1.15 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.18 / defence 0.96 against Mariehamn attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SJK 55% | Draw 22% | Mariehamn 23%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 61%, Mariehamn 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SJK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. SJK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. Mariehamn (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights