🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates SJK at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs Mariehamn encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Mariehamn make the trip to OmaSp Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 June 2025 at 10:00 UTC.

Form

SJK (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at OmaSp Stadion, SJK have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Mariehamn have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for SJK against 1.00 for Mariehamn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SJK have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Mariehamn in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Across 8 previous meetings, SJK are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 2, with 0 draws in between.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with SJK winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SJK and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading & In-Play

SJK — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Mariehamn — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 59% versus Mariehamn 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 61% | Mariehamn 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.90 xG and Mariehamn 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.175 / defence 0.963 | Mariehamn attack 0.814 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.468. Data: 35 SJK games / 34 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SJK 55% | Draw 22% | Mariehamn 23%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Mariehamn 4.35. The model has a clear lean to SJK (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SJK 70% | Mariehamn 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights