SJK 0-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OmaSp Stadion plays host to SJK versus KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 7. Kick-off: Monday 27 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at OmaSp Stadion, SJK have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KuPS have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
KuPS's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for SJK, 2.30 for KuPS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
KuPS hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2025, ended 2–3 with KuPS winning.
It is worth noting that KuPS have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SJK 69% and KuPS 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SJK 74% | KuPS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.52 xG and KuPS 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.116 / defence 0.823 | KuPS attack 0.920 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.653. Data: 44 SJK games / 44 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 42% | Draw 27% | KuPS 30%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | KuPS 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SJK 80% | KuPS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: OmaSp Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 27 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 42% | Draw 27% | KuPS 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG SJK 1.52 / KuPS 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.116 / def 0.823 | KuPS attack 0.920 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.653 • Poisson stance: SJK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.25
KuPS xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs KuPS kick off?
SJK vs KuPS kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 27 October 2025 at OmaSp Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs KuPS?
SJK 0 - 1 KuPS.
Where is SJK vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at OmaSp Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs KuPS part of?
SJK vs KuPS is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 42% chance of winning, KuPS a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SJK and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
Record (7 meetings): SJK 0W | Draws 3 | KuPS 4W.
What form are SJK and KuPS in?
SJK (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. KuPS (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SJK's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (0.92x) against SJK's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
42%
2.35
27%
3.66
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
SJK xG
Total xG
2.77
1.25
KuPS xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are SJK and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for SJK and 1.25 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SJK's recent record stands at 27W 13D 15L from 55 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 34W 11D 10L across 55 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for SJK against 2.05 for KuPS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SJK have managed 13W 8D 6L from 27 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KuPS's away record stands at 11W 11D 5L across 27 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of KuPS's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SJK are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.84 scored and 1.00 conceded. SJK's scoring rate against KuPS's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: SJK have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
KuPS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and KuPS in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 27W 13D 15L in their last 55 games (1.71 PPG), while KuPS have gone 34W 11D 10L in their last 55 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or KuPS away?
SJK's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.74 PPG; KuPS away: 1.63 PPG.
Have SJK or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, KuPS in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SJK
4
Draws
6
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 0, KuPS have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SJK and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when SJK 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between SJK and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for SJK, 59% for KuPS — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SJK) and 48% (KuPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of SJK's games and 59% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SJK's matches and 48% of KuPS's.
Do SJK and KuPS tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, KuPS in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KuPS defy the odds to beat SJK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat SJK 0-1 at OmaSp Stadion, Championship Round - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.52 xG and KuPS 1.25 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SJK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.12 / defence 0.82 against KuPS attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 42% | Draw 27% | KuPS 30%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual KuPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 74%, KuPS 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
KuPS's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.71 PPG, KuPS 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KuPS win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. KuPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.