SJK 1-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SJK face Ilves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to OmaSp Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
SJK (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SJK's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ilves's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Ilves's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for SJK against 1.50 for Ilves. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SJK's last 10 home games and Ilves's last 10 away games) — SJK have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ilves in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for SJK, 1 for Ilves and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2025, ended SJK 3–3 Ilves — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SJK 68% and Ilves 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SJK 75% | Ilves 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 2.02 xG and Ilves 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.197 / defence 0.883 | Ilves attack 1.212 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.193. Ilves's defence rating of 1.321 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SJK's projected output up. Ilves have an above-average attack rating of 1.212, which lifts their away xG to 1.28. Data: built from SJK's last 26 games and Ilves's last 26. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SJK 53% | Draw 25% | Ilves 22%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.89 | Draw 3.98 | Ilves 4.55. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.02 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SJK at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SJK's last 10 home games and Ilves's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SJK 70% (last 10 home games) | Ilves 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (SJK 26 games, Ilves 26) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 5 | Venue: OmaSp Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 53% | Draw 25% | Ilves 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG SJK 2.02 / Ilves 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.197 / def 0.883 | Ilves attack 1.212 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: SJK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Ilves xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SJK vs Ilves FAQs
What time does SJK vs Ilves kick off?
SJK vs Ilves kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at OmaSp Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Ilves?
SJK 1 - 1 Ilves.
Where is SJK vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at OmaSp Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Ilves part of?
SJK vs Ilves is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 5) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 53% chance of winning, Ilves a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SJK and Ilves will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SJK vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.20x the league average against Ilves's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (1.21x) against SJK's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from SJK's last 26 games and Ilves's last 26, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.98
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
SJK xG
Total xG
3.30
1.28
Ilves xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
3%
34.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SJK vs Ilves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are SJK and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for SJK and 1.28 for Ilves, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SJK's recent record stands at 28W 15D 16L from 59 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 34W 12D 13L across 59 games — 1.93 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for SJK against 1.93 for Ilves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SJK have managed 14W 8D 7L from their last 29 home games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 14W 6D 9L across their last 29 away games, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
SJK are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 2.10 scored and 1.22 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SJK have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ilves in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
Ilves
Current Season
SJK (Home) vs Ilves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SJK
Current Season
Ilves
Current Season
❓ SJK vs Ilves Form FAQs
What form are SJK and Ilves in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 28W 15D 16L in their last 59 games (1.68 PPG), while Ilves have gone 34W 12D 13L in their last 59 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Ilves away?
SJK's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.72 PPG; Ilves away: 1.66 PPG.
Have SJK or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Ilves in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between SJK and Ilves, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won Ilves 4-0 SJK on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SJK
5
Draws
2
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ SJK vs Ilves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Ilves?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SJK have won 3, Ilves have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Ilves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Ilves 2-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Ilves?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ilves see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 69%, Ilves 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (SJK) and 45% (Ilves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SJK vs Ilves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SJK and Ilves matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of SJK's games and 45% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SJK and Ilves matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of SJK's matches and 45% of Ilves's.
Do SJK and Ilves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of SJK's recent matches and 59% of Ilves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK and Ilves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK and Ilves finished level at 1-1 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 2.02 xG and Ilves 1.28 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SJK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.20 / defence 0.88 against Ilves attack 1.21 / defence 1.32, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SJK 53% | Draw 25% | Ilves 22%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 75%, Ilves 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Ilves's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.68 PPG, Ilves 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SJK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.