Mariehamn 1-2 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VPS at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs VPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Mariehamn welcome VPS to Wiklöf Holding Arena in Veikkausliiga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 3 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Mariehamn have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, VPS stand at 9W 0D 1L — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
VPS's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. VPS's 2.70 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Mariehamn's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Mariehamn have won 0, VPS 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2023, ended Mariehamn 1–2 VPS — a VPS win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Mariehamn in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
VPS in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 60% versus VPS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 48% | VPS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 0.67 xG and VPS 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.636 / defence 1.056 | VPS attack 0.997 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.259. Mariehamn's attack rating of 0.636 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Data: built from Mariehamn's last 43 games and VPS's last 43.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 18% | Draw 30% | VPS 52%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 5.55 | Draw 3.30 | VPS 1.93. VPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mariehamn's last 10 home games and VPS's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mariehamn 40% (last 10 home games) | VPS 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 22 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 18% | Draw 30% | VPS 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Mariehamn 0.67 / VPS 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.636 / def 1.056 | VPS attack 0.997 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: VPS (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.33
VPS xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mariehamn vs VPS FAQs
What time does Mariehamn vs VPS kick off?
Mariehamn vs VPS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs VPS?
Mariehamn 1 - 2 VPS.
Where is Mariehamn vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs VPS part of?
Mariehamn vs VPS is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 22) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 18% chance of winning, VPS a 52% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Mariehamn and VPS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Mariehamn vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.64x the league average against VPS's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mariehamn's last 43 games and VPS's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
18%
5.55
30%
3.30
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.00
1.33
VPS xG
5.55
18%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
5%
20.91
26%
3.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 18.0 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mariehamn vs VPS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.33 for VPS, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 12W 13D 23L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
VPS's form line: 22W 7D 19L from 48 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, VPS are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.08 PPG from their last 24 home games (6W 8D 10L).
On the road, VPS have gone 13W 3D 8L from their last 24 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mariehamn are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.65 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
VPS
Blended
Mariehamn (Home) vs VPS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mariehamn
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Mariehamn vs VPS Form FAQs
What form are Mariehamn and VPS in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 12W 13D 23L in their last 48 games (1.02 PPG), while VPS have gone 22W 7D 19L in their last 48 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.08 PPG; VPS away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 4 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: VPS have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Jun 2025, when VPS won Mariehamn 1-5 VPS.
Mariehamn's record when hosting VPS specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
3
Draws
6
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Mariehamn vs VPS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and VPS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mariehamn have won 1, VPS have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and VPS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 July 2026: VPS 4-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 58%, VPS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mariehamn) and 54% (VPS).
On the defensive side: VPS in 33%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mariehamn vs VPS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mariehamn and VPS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 46% of VPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mariehamn and VPS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mariehamn's recent games and 54% of VPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and VPS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 67% of VPS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out Mariehamn 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Mariehamn 1-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 0.67 xG and VPS 1.33 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.64 / defence 1.06 against VPS attack 1.00 / defence 0.82, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 18% | Draw 30% | VPS 52%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 48%, VPS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
VPS's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.