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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat VPS 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mariehamn beat VPS 2-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Relegation Round - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.41 xG and VPS 1.92 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. VPS landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against VPS attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 27% | Draw 24% | VPS 49%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Mariehamn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 60%, VPS 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mariehamn's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

VPS's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mariehamn 0.96 PPG, VPS 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights