Mariehamn 2-1 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VPS at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs VPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Relegation Round - 2 as Mariehamn welcome VPS to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 September 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Mariehamn have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VPS stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Mariehamn) versus 1.00 (VPS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mariehamn register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, VPS in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour VPS, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Mariehamn.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. VPS have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Mariehamn in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
VPS in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mariehamn 56% and VPS 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 60% | VPS 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.41 xG and VPS 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.856 / defence 1.185 | VPS attack 0.981 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.652. Data: 44 Mariehamn games / 44 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 27% | Draw 24% | VPS 49%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | VPS 2.04. VPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 60% | VPS 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 27% | Draw 24% | VPS 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Mariehamn 1.41 / VPS 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.856 / def 1.185 | VPS attack 0.981 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.652 • Poisson stance: VPS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.92
VPS xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs VPS kick off?
Mariehamn vs VPS kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs VPS?
Mariehamn 2 - 1 VPS.
Where is Mariehamn vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs VPS part of?
Mariehamn vs VPS is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 27% chance of winning, VPS a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Mariehamn and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and VPS?
Record (7 meetings): Mariehamn 0W | Draws 3 | VPS 4W.
What form are Mariehamn and VPS in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. VPS (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.86x the league average against VPS's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
27%
3.64
24%
4.18
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.33
1.92
VPS xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
15%
6.82
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
4%
24.84
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.92 for VPS, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 12D 26L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS's form line: 17W 13D 20L from 50 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 0.96 PPG, VPS on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.04 PPG from 24 outings (6W 7D 11L).
On the road, VPS have gone 8W 5D 11L from 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mariehamn are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.50 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VPS in 74%.
Last 50 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and VPS in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 12W 12D 26L in their last 50 games (0.96 PPG), while VPS have gone 17W 13D 20L in their last 50 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.04 PPG; VPS away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: VPS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jun 2025, when VPS won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting VPS specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
3
Draws
6
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, VPS have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when VPS 4-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 50%, VPS 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Mariehamn and 83% for VPS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play VPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Mariehamn's games and 79% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mariehamn vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Mariehamn's matches and 83% of VPS's.
Do Mariehamn and VPS tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, VPS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat VPS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat VPS 2-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Relegation Round - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.41 xG and VPS 1.92 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. VPS landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against VPS attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 27% | Draw 24% | VPS 49%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Mariehamn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 60%, VPS 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
VPS's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 0.96 PPG, VPS 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.