Mariehamn 1-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KuPS make the trip to Wiklof Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Mariehamn (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
KuPS's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
KuPS away from home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. KuPS are 0.80 PPG clear of Mariehamn over their recent games (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Mariehamn, 4 for KuPS and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Jun 2025, ended Mariehamn 1–0 KuPS — a Mariehamn win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
KuPS — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 57% versus KuPS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 59% | KuPS 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mariehamn surrender their half-time lead 67% of the time, while KuPS have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.17 xG and KuPS 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.911 / defence 1.118 | KuPS attack 1.079 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.995. Data: built from Mariehamn's last 28 games and KuPS's last 29.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 33% | Draw 32% | KuPS 35%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.99 | Draw 3.17 | KuPS 2.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mariehamn 50% (last 10 home games) | KuPS 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 7 | Venue: Wiklof Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 33% | Draw 32% | KuPS 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Mariehamn 1.17 / KuPS 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.911 / def 1.118 | KuPS attack 1.079 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: KuPS (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.20
KuPS xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mariehamn vs KuPS FAQs
What time does Mariehamn vs KuPS kick off?
Mariehamn vs KuPS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Wiklof Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Mariehamn 1 - 1 KuPS.
Where is Mariehamn vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Wiklof Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs KuPS part of?
Mariehamn vs KuPS is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 7) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 33% chance of winning, KuPS a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mariehamn and KuPS will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Mariehamn vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.91x the league average against KuPS's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.08x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Mariehamn's last 28 games and KuPS's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
33%
2.99
32%
3.17
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.37
1.20
KuPS xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mariehamn vs KuPS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.20 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 15W 13D 26L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
KuPS's form line: 35W 9D 10L from 54 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.20 PPG from their last 25 home games (8W 6D 11L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 12W 8D 5L from their last 25 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.85 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
KuPS
Current Season
Mariehamn (Home) vs KuPS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mariehamn
Blended
KuPS
Current Season
❓ Mariehamn vs KuPS Form FAQs
What form are Mariehamn and KuPS in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while KuPS have gone 35W 9D 10L in their last 54 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.20 PPG; KuPS away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, KuPS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Mariehamn and KuPS, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won KuPS 3-0 Mariehamn on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mariehamn
3
Draws
4
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Mariehamn vs KuPS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and KuPS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mariehamn have won 3, KuPS have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and KuPS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: KuPS 2-4 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
KuPS see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 48%, KuPS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mariehamn) and 48% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 32%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mariehamn vs KuPS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mariehamn and KuPS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 52% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mariehamn and KuPS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Mariehamn's recent games and 48% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and KuPS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 56% of KuPS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn and KuPS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wiklof Holding Arena, Regular Season - 7, as Mariehamn and KuPS drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.17 xG and KuPS 1.20 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.91 / defence 1.12 against KuPS attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 33% | Draw 32% | KuPS 35%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 59%, KuPS 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.