Mariehamn 0-2 Inter Turku – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Inter Turku at 65% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs Inter Turku encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mariehamn host Inter Turku at in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 June 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn at this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Inter Turku have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Inter Turku have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mariehamn at 1.50 PPG versus Inter Turku's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Inter Turku have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Mariehamn's 1 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Inter Turku winning.
It is worth noting that Inter Turku have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Mariehamn in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Inter Turku in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 57% versus Inter Turku 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 59% | Inter Turku 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 0.98 xG and Inter Turku 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.681 / defence 1.407 | Inter Turku attack 1.363 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.174. Mariehamn's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Inter Turku have an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — the away xG of 2.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Mariehamn games / 36 Inter Turku games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 13% | Draw 22% | Inter Turku 65%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 7.69 | Draw 4.55 | Inter Turku 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Inter Turku (65%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter Turku at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 50% | Inter Turku 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Inter Turku | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jun 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 13% | Draw 22% | Inter Turku 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 57% | xG Mariehamn 0.98 / Inter Turku 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.681 / def 1.407 | Inter Turku attack 1.363 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Inter Turku (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Inter Turku xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Inter Turku kick off?
Mariehamn vs Inter Turku kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 June 2026.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Mariehamn 0 - 2 Inter Turku.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Inter Turku part of?
Mariehamn vs Inter Turku is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 13% chance of winning, Inter Turku a 65% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Inter Turku the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Mariehamn and Inter Turku will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Inter Turku have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Inter Turku?
Record (9 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 3 | Inter Turku 5W.
What form are Mariehamn and Inter Turku in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Inter Turku (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (0.68) and Inter Turku's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter Turku's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Turku Win
13%
7.43
22%
4.56
65%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.23
2.25
Inter Turku xG
7.43
13%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
1.55
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
11%
9.51
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
1%
70.68
24%
4.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.9 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Inter Turku expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Mariehamn and 2.25 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Inter Turku?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 15W 13D 26L from 54 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter Turku, meanwhile, have gone 28W 13D 13L across 54 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Inter Turku by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mariehamn have managed 9W 7D 11L from 27 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter Turku's away record stands at 12W 5D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mariehamn are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Inter Turku are on 1.83 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Inter Turku
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Inter Turku in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while Inter Turku have gone 28W 13D 13L in their last 54 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Inter Turku away?
Inter Turku's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.26 PPG; Inter Turku away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or Inter Turku been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Inter Turku in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mariehamn and Inter Turku runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Inter Turku go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Inter Turku won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Inter Turku specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
3
Draws
6
Inter Turku
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Inter Turku?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, Inter Turku have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Inter Turku last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Mariehamn 0-2 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Inter Turku?
Inter Turku have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 52%, Inter Turku 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Mariehamn) and 52% (Inter Turku). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter Turku in 33%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Inter Turku away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Inter Turku?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 48% of Inter Turku's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Inter Turku usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Mariehamn's matches and 52% of Inter Turku's.
Do Mariehamn and Inter Turku tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Inter Turku in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter Turku cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter Turku beat Mariehamn 0-2 at , Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 0.98 xG and Inter Turku 2.25 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.68 / defence 1.41 against Inter Turku attack 1.36 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 13% | Draw 22% | Inter Turku 65%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 59%, Inter Turku 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter Turku's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter Turku arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter Turku (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.