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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat Ilves 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mariehamn beat Ilves 3-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.00 xG and Ilves 2.45 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mariehamn beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.81 / defence 1.14 against Ilves attack 1.33 / defence 0.83, drawn from 26/25 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 14% | Draw 17% | Ilves 69%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Mariehamn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 57%, Ilves 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Mariehamn winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights