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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FF Jaro cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mariehamn.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FF Jaro beat Mariehamn 0-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.99 xG and FF Jaro 1.16 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 2.0 short of their projected output. FF Jaro outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against FF Jaro attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 22/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 56% | Draw 22% | FF Jaro 21%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a FF Jaro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, FF Jaro 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.50 PPG, FF Jaro 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FF Jaro win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FF Jaro scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights