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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mariehamn cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AC Oulu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mariehamn beat AC Oulu 2-0 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Relegation Round - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.62 xG and AC Oulu 1.77 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AC Oulu landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.88 / defence 1.16 against AC Oulu attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 35% | Draw 24% | AC Oulu 41%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mariehamn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 60%, AC Oulu 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mariehamn's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

AC Oulu's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.04 PPG, AC Oulu 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights