KuPS 0-1 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs VPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
VPS travel to Väre Areena to take on KuPS in Veikkausliiga (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 July 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, KuPS stand at 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, KuPS have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
VPS — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
VPS's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
KuPS are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
KuPS in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
VPS in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 40% versus VPS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 40% | VPS 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.49 xG and VPS 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 0.967 / defence 0.752 | VPS attack 0.828 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.059. VPS's defence rating of 1.225 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing KuPS's projected output up. KuPS have a tight defence (rating 0.752), which is pulling VPS's projected output down. Data: built from KuPS's last 37 games and VPS's last 35.
Result probabilities: KuPS 56% | Draw 28% | VPS 15%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.77 | Draw 3.55 | VPS 6.49. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (56%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KuPS 20% (last 10 home games) | VPS 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 14 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 July 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 56% | Draw 28% | VPS 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG KuPS 1.49 / VPS 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 0.967 / def 0.752 | VPS attack 0.828 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: KuPS (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.66
VPS xG
38%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KuPS vs VPS FAQs
What time does KuPS vs VPS kick off?
KuPS vs VPS kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 8 July 2023 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs VPS?
KuPS 0 - 1 VPS.
Where is KuPS vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs VPS part of?
KuPS vs VPS is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 14) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 56% chance of winning, VPS a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both KuPS and VPS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will KuPS vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KuPS's attack at 0.97x the league average against VPS's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from KuPS's last 37 games and VPS's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
56%
1.77
28%
3.55
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.15
0.66
VPS xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
3%
28.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 11.4 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KuPS vs VPS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are KuPS and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for KuPS and 0.66 for VPS, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs VPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KuPS's recent record stands at 27W 7D 8L from 42 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
VPS, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 21L across 42 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VPS heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, KuPS have managed 15W 4D 3L from their last 22 home games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VPS's away record stands at 9W 3D 10L across their last 22 away games, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KuPS are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.48 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
VPS
Blended
KuPS (Home) vs VPS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KuPS
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ KuPS vs VPS Form FAQs
What form are KuPS and VPS in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 27W 7D 8L in their last 42 games (2.10 PPG), while VPS have gone 14W 7D 21L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or VPS away?
KuPS's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.23 PPG; VPS away: 1.36 PPG.
Have KuPS or VPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, VPS in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
KuPS have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
KuPS's record when hosting VPS specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
KuPS
2
Draws
2
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ KuPS vs VPS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and VPS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, KuPS have won 6, VPS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and VPS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: KuPS 2-0 VPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and VPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 41%, VPS 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (KuPS) and 68% (VPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KuPS vs VPS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KuPS and VPS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of KuPS's recent matches and 59% of VPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are KuPS and VPS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of KuPS's matches and 68% of VPS's.
Do KuPS and VPS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of KuPS's recent matches and 73% of VPS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VPS defy the odds to beat KuPS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat KuPS 0-1 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.49 xG and VPS 0.66 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. KuPS fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 0.97 / defence 0.75 against VPS attack 0.83 / defence 1.23, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 56% | Draw 28% | VPS 15%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a VPS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 40%, VPS 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (42 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
VPS's trading profile (42 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with VPS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. VPS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.