🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Ilves cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over KuPS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat KuPS 2-4 at Vare Areena, Championship Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.70 xG and Ilves 1.59 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Ilves outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.24 / defence 0.83 against Ilves attack 1.15 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KuPS 40% | Draw 25% | Ilves 35%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Ilves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 55%, Ilves 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KuPS's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Ilves's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — KuPS 2.04 PPG, Ilves 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. KuPS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights