KuPS 3-2 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 44%, yet in-form KuPS provide a compelling counter-argument — this KuPS vs AC Oulu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AC Oulu make the trip to Vare Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
KuPS (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
KuPS's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AC Oulu have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
AC Oulu away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. KuPS's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of AC Oulu's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from KuPS's last 10 home games and AC Oulu's last 10 away games) — KuPS have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, AC Oulu in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours KuPS, who have won 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against AC Oulu — AC Oulu have 1 win, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Jul 2025, ended KuPS 2–2 AC Oulu — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives KuPS an edge — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
AC Oulu goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 54% versus AC Oulu 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 57% | AC Oulu 57%). Note also that AC Oulu surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while KuPS recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.05 xG and AC Oulu 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.039 / defence 0.846 | AC Oulu attack 1.334 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.216. AC Oulu have an above-average attack rating of 1.334, which lifts their away xG to 1.37. Data: built from KuPS's last 25 games and AC Oulu's last 25. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: KuPS 29% | Draw 27% | AC Oulu 44%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 3.48 | Draw 3.70 | AC Oulu 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AC Oulu are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form KuPS (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though recent form (KuPS's last 10 home games and AC Oulu's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: KuPS 80% (last 10 home games) | AC Oulu 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (KuPS 25 games, AC Oulu 25) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 14 | Venue: Vare Areena • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 29% | Draw 27% | AC Oulu 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG KuPS 1.05 / AC Oulu 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.039 / def 0.846 | AC Oulu attack 1.334 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.37
AC Oulu xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KuPS vs AC Oulu FAQs
What time does KuPS vs AC Oulu kick off?
KuPS vs AC Oulu kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Vare Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs AC Oulu?
KuPS 3 - 2 AC Oulu.
Where is KuPS vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Vare Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs AC Oulu part of?
KuPS vs AC Oulu is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 14) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 29% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both KuPS and AC Oulu will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will KuPS vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KuPS's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against AC Oulu's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (1.33x) against KuPS's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from KuPS's last 25 games and AC Oulu's last 25, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
29%
3.48
27%
3.70
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.43
1.37
AC Oulu xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
7%
13.72
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KuPS vs AC Oulu Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are KuPS and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for KuPS and 1.37 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KuPS's recent record stands at 35W 9D 10L from 54 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
AC Oulu, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 29L across 54 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 1.09 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AC Oulu heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, KuPS have managed 21W 1D 5L from their last 27 home games — 2.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Oulu's away record stands at 5W 5D 17L across their last 27 away games, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KuPS are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.24 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Current Season
AC Oulu
Blended
KuPS (Home) vs AC Oulu (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KuPS
Current Season
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ KuPS vs AC Oulu Form FAQs
What form are KuPS and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 35W 9D 10L in their last 54 games (2.11 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 15W 10D 29L in their last 54 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or AC Oulu away?
KuPS's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.37 PPG; AC Oulu away: 0.74 PPG.
Have KuPS or AC Oulu been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AC Oulu in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: AC Oulu have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won KuPS 4-1 AC Oulu on 8 Jun 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
1
Draws
4
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ KuPS vs AC Oulu H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and AC Oulu?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, KuPS have won 5, AC Oulu have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did KuPS and AC Oulu last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: AC Oulu 2-0 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and AC Oulu?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 52%, AC Oulu 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for KuPS and 63% for AC Oulu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KuPS vs AC Oulu Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KuPS and AC Oulu matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of KuPS's games and 70% of AC Oulu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are KuPS and AC Oulu matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of KuPS's matches and 63% of AC Oulu's.
Do KuPS and AC Oulu matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of KuPS's recent matches and 74% of AC Oulu's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KuPS defy the odds to beat AC Oulu 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat AC Oulu 3-2 at Vare Areena, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.05 xG and AC Oulu 1.37 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.04 / defence 0.85 against AC Oulu attack 1.33 / defence 0.87, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 29% | Draw 27% | AC Oulu 44%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual KuPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 57%, AC Oulu 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Oulu's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AC Oulu (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.