Inter Turku 1-2 Gnistan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Inter Turku take on Gnistan.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Veritas Stadion plays host to Inter Turku versus Gnistan in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 26 July 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Inter Turku's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Inter Turku, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter Turku's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Veritas Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Veritas Stadion.
Gnistan (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gnistan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Gnistan have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Inter Turku 4W, Gnistan 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Gnistan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Inter Turku — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Gnistan — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter Turku 58% versus Gnistan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter Turku 50% | Gnistan 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter Turku 0.89 xG and Gnistan 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter Turku attack 0.800 / defence 0.758 | Gnistan attack 0.973 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.184. Gnistan's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Inter Turku's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Inter Turku games / 38 Gnistan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter Turku 31% | Draw 38% | Gnistan 30%. Fair-value odds: Inter Turku 3.23 | Draw 2.63 | Gnistan 3.33. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Inter Turku 50% | Gnistan 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter Turku vs Gnistan | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Veritas Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter Turku 31% | Draw 38% | Gnistan 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 37% | xG Inter Turku 0.89 / Gnistan 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Inter Turku attack 0.800 / def 0.758 | Gnistan attack 0.973 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Inter Turku xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Gnistan xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter Turku vs Gnistan kick off?
Inter Turku vs Gnistan kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at Veritas Stadion.
What was the final score in Inter Turku vs Gnistan?
Inter Turku 1 - 2 Gnistan.
Where is Inter Turku vs Gnistan being played?
The match is being played at Veritas Stadion.
What competition is Inter Turku vs Gnistan part of?
Inter Turku vs Gnistan is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Inter Turku vs Gnistan?
Our statistical model gives Inter Turku a 31% chance of winning, Gnistan a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Inter Turku vs Gnistan?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Inter Turku and Gnistan will score (BTTS).
Will Inter Turku vs Gnistan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and Gnistan?
Record (8 meetings): Inter Turku 4W | Draws 2 | Gnistan 2W.
What form are Inter Turku and Gnistan in?
Inter Turku (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Gnistan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Inter Turku vs Gnistan?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Inter Turku's attack at 0.80x the league average against Gnistan's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gnistan's attack (0.97x) against Inter Turku's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.20
38%
2.61
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Inter Turku xG
Total xG
1.76
0.87
Gnistan xG
3.20
31%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
12%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 15.0 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter Turku vs Gnistan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Inter Turku and Gnistan expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Inter Turku and 0.87 for Gnistan, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter Turku vs Gnistan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Inter Turku's recent record stands at 25W 17D 6L from 48 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Inter Turku is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gnistan, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 20L across 48 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Gnistan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Inter Turku by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gnistan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Inter Turku have managed 13W 10D 1L from 24 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gnistan's away record stands at 6W 8D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter Turku come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inter Turku are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Gnistan are on 1.50 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Defensively: Inter Turku have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter Turku
Blended
Gnistan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter Turku and Gnistan in coming into this match?
Inter Turku have gone 25W 17D 6L in their last 48 games (1.92 PPG), while Gnistan have gone 15W 13D 20L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter Turku at home or Gnistan away?
Inter Turku's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter Turku at home: 2.04 PPG; Gnistan away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Inter Turku or Gnistan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter Turku have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Gnistan in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Gnistan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter Turku won 3-0 on 12 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inter Turku have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gnistan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Inter Turku
2
Draws
3
Gnistan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter Turku and Gnistan?
From 9 meetings on record, Inter Turku have won 4, Gnistan have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inter Turku and Gnistan last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Inter Turku 1-2 Gnistan.
Who has won more matches between Inter Turku and Gnistan?
Inter Turku have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter Turku 58%, Gnistan 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Inter Turku) and 50% (Gnistan).
On the defensive side: Inter Turku keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Gnistan in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter Turku home games / Gnistan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter Turku play Gnistan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Inter Turku's games and 58% of Gnistan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inter Turku vs Gnistan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Inter Turku's recent games and 50% of Gnistan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter Turku and Gnistan tend to score early?
Inter Turku have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gnistan in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gnistan defy the odds to beat Inter Turku 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan beat Inter Turku 1-2 at Veritas Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter Turku 0.89 xG and Gnistan 0.87 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gnistan outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter Turku attack 0.80 / defence 0.76 against Gnistan attack 0.97 / defence 0.73, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter Turku 31% | Draw 38% | Gnistan 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Gnistan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter Turku 50%, Gnistan 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter Turku's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Gnistan's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter Turku arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Gnistan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Inter Turku (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.