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Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out Mariehamn 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat Mariehamn 2-1 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.46 xG and Mariehamn 1.11 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.10 / defence 0.87 against Mariehamn attack 0.79 / defence 1.34, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ilves 66% | Draw 19% | Mariehamn 15%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 58%, Mariehamn 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ilves's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Mariehamn's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights