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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ilves and KuPS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves and KuPS finished level at 1-1 at Tammelan Stadion, Championship Round - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.44 xG and KuPS 1.33 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against KuPS attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ilves 39% | Draw 28% | KuPS 34%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 62%, KuPS 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ilves's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

KuPS's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ilves 2.00 PPG, KuPS 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights