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Veikkausliiga · Championship Round - 6

Kick-off

Thu 16 Oct 2025

16:00

Venue

Tammelan Stadion

Competition

Veikkausliiga

Finland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Ilves Win

39%

Ilves

2.58

28%

Draw

3.63

34%

KuPS

2.97

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.1%

Home win

2 – 1

8.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.44

Ilves xG

Total xG

2.77

1.33

KuPS xG

39%
28%
34%
IlvesDrawKuPS

2.58

39%

Home win

3.63

28%

Draw

2.97

34%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.75

43%

BTTS No

2.33

Clean Sheet

27%

Ilves

3.77

24%

KuPS

4.22

Win to Nil

10%

Ilves

9.70

8%

KuPS

12.55

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.3 8.3 5.5 2.4 0.8 0.2
1 9.1 12.0 8.0 3.5 1.2 0.3
2 6.5 8.6 5.7 2.5 0.8 0.2
3 3.1 4.2 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.440
λ Away (xG) 1.326
Total xG 2.766
League avg home goals 1.674
League avg away goals 1.653
Ilves attack strength 1.067
Ilves defence strength 0.876
KuPS attack strength 0.916
KuPS defence strength 0.807
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 44 / 44