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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out HJK Helsinki 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat HJK Helsinki 3-2 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.77 xG and HJK Helsinki 1.28 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against HJK Helsinki attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ilves 49% | Draw 24% | HJK Helsinki 27%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 48%, HJK Helsinki 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

HJK Helsinki's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ilves 1.61 PPG, HJK Helsinki 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. HJK Helsinki (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights