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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out Gnistan 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat Gnistan 3-2 at Tammelan Stadion, Championship Round - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.04 xG and Gnistan 1.48 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.07 / defence 0.86 against Gnistan attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ilves 50% | Draw 23% | Gnistan 27%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 60%, Gnistan 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ilves's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Gnistan's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gnistan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights