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Veikkausliiga · Championship Round - 2

Kick-off

Tue 23 Sep 2025

16:00

Venue

Tammelan Stadion

Competition

Veikkausliiga

Finland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Ilves Win

50%

Ilves

2.00

23%

Draw

4.35

27%

Gnistan

3.69

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.1%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

8.9%

Draw

2 – 2

6.7%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.04

Ilves xG

Total xG

3.52

1.48

Gnistan xG

50%
23%
27%
IlvesDrawGnistan

2.00

50%

Home win

4.35

23%

Draw

3.69

27%

Away win

Goals Markets

87%

Over 1.5

1.15

13%

Under 1.5

7.69

68%

Over 2.5

1.47

32%

Under 2.5

3.12

47%

Over 3.5

2.13

53%

Under 3.5

1.89

28%

Over 4.5

3.57

72%

Under 4.5

1.39

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

68%

BTTS Yes

1.47

32%

BTTS No

3.12

Clean Sheet

23%

Ilves

4.38

13%

Gnistan

7.68

Win to Nil

11%

Ilves

8.78

4%

Gnistan

28.34

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.0 4.4 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2
1 6.1 8.9 6.6 3.3 1.2 0.4
2 6.2 9.1 6.7 3.3 1.2 0.4
3 4.2 6.2 4.6 2.3 0.8 0.2
4 2.1 3.2 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
5 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.039
λ Away (xG) 1.477
Total xG 3.516
League avg home goals 1.673
League avg away goals 1.652
Ilves attack strength 1.068
Ilves defence strength 0.865
Gnistan attack strength 1.034
Gnistan defence strength 1.141
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 44 / 44