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Ilves and Gnistan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves and Gnistan finished level at 2-2 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.16 xG and Gnistan 1.21 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against Gnistan attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ilves 58% | Draw 21% | Gnistan 20%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 57%, Gnistan 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ilves's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Gnistan's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights