Ilves 4-6 Gnistan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ilves at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ilves vs Gnistan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ilves host Gnistan at Tammelan Stadion in Veikkausliiga (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ilves stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ilves's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 2 games, Gnistan have recorded 0W 1D 1L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ilves are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.45 xG and Gnistan 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 0.732 / defence 0.885 | Gnistan attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.232. Ilves's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.45. Data: built from Ilves's last 23 games and Gnistan's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ilves 46% | Draw 34% | Gnistan 20%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.19 | Draw 2.93 | Gnistan 4.92. Ilves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ilves's last 10 home games and Gnistan's last 2 games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Ilves 23 games, Gnistan 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Gnistan | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 2 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 46% | Draw 34% | Gnistan 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Ilves 1.45 / Gnistan 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 0.732 / def 0.885 | Gnistan attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Ilves (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Gnistan xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ilves vs Gnistan FAQs
What time does Ilves vs Gnistan kick off?
Ilves vs Gnistan kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Gnistan?
Ilves 4 - 6 Gnistan.
Where is Ilves vs Gnistan being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Gnistan part of?
Ilves vs Gnistan is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 2) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Gnistan?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 46% chance of winning, Gnistan a 20% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Gnistan?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ilves and Gnistan will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Ilves vs Gnistan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ilves's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Gnistan's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Gnistan's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ilves's last 23 games and Gnistan's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
46%
2.19
34%
2.93
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.38
0.93
Gnistan xG
2.19
46%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
5%
21.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ilves vs Gnistan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Gnistan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ilves and Gnistan expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ilves and 0.93 for Gnistan, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Gnistan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Ilves have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five.
Gnistan's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L.
Put side by side, Ilves are the form team by 2.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gnistan.
Goals in Recent Form
Ilves are averaging 4.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gnistan are on 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Gnistan in 0%.
Defensively: Gnistan in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Early Season
Gnistan
Early Season
Ilves (Home) vs Gnistan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ilves
Early Season
Gnistan
Early Season
❓ Ilves vs Gnistan Form FAQs
What form are Ilves and Gnistan in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Gnistan have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Ilves or Gnistan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Gnistan in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 17 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Ilves's record when hosting Gnistan specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ilves
2
Draws
2
Gnistan
Recent Meetings
❓ Ilves vs Gnistan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Gnistan?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Ilves have won 4, Gnistan have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Gnistan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 August 2026: Gnistan 3-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Gnistan?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Gnistan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ilves vs Gnistan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ilves and Gnistan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Ilves's recent matches and 0% of Gnistan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ilves and Gnistan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Ilves's matches and 50% of Gnistan's.
Do Ilves and Gnistan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Ilves's recent matches and 50% of Gnistan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gnistan cruise to a comfortable 4-6 victory over Ilves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan beat Ilves 4-6 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.45 xG and Gnistan 0.93 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 4-6 for 10 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gnistan outscored their 0.93 projection by 5.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 0.73 / defence 0.89 against Gnistan attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 23/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 46% | Draw 34% | Gnistan 20%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Gnistan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 100%, Gnistan 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Gnistan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ilves shipped 6 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gnistan scored 6 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.