SJK 1-0 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 44%, yet in-form Ilves provide a compelling counter-argument — this SJK vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to OmaSP Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 19 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SJK's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at OmaSP Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ilves are 0.80 PPG clear of SJK in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SJK 0W, Ilves 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 54% versus Ilves 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 48% | Ilves 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.79 xG and Ilves 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.990 / defence 0.914 | Ilves attack 0.969 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.889 / away 1.585. Data: 24 SJK games / 24 Ilves games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SJK 44% | Draw 29% | Ilves 27%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Ilves 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SJK at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ilves (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SJK 80% | Ilves 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 44% | Draw 29% | Ilves 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 66% | xG SJK 1.79 / Ilves 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 0.990 / def 0.914 | Ilves attack 0.969 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.889 / away 1.585 • Poisson stance: SJK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Ilves xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Ilves kick off?
SJK vs Ilves kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 19 April 2024 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Ilves?
SJK 1 - 0 Ilves.
Where is SJK vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Ilves part of?
SJK vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 44% chance of winning, Ilves a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SJK and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Ilves?
Record (1 meetings): SJK 0W | Draws 1 | Ilves 0W.
What form are SJK and Ilves in?
SJK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 0.99x the league average against Ilves's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.97x) against SJK's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.43
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
SJK xG
Total xG
3.20
1.40
Ilves xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
5%
22.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are SJK and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for SJK and 1.40 for Ilves, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SJK's recent record stands at 21W 12D 21L from 54 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 21L across 54 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for SJK against 1.24 for Ilves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SJK have managed 13W 6D 8L from 27 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 8W 10D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SJK are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.44 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Ilves in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 21W 12D 21L in their last 54 games (1.39 PPG), while Ilves have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Ilves away?
SJK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.67 PPG; Ilves away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SJK
6
Draws
1
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 3, Ilves have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Ilves 2-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Ilves?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 67%, Ilves 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (SJK) and 52% (Ilves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Ilves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SJK's games and 52% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of SJK's matches and 52% of Ilves's.
Do SJK and Ilves tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Ilves in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Ilves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Ilves 1-0 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.79 xG and Ilves 1.40 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ilves landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Ilves attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SJK 44% | Draw 29% | Ilves 27%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 48%, Ilves 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.39 PPG, Ilves 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.