Honka 0-0 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Honka at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Honka vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion plays host to Honka versus SJK in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 15 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Honka's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Honka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Honka have posted 6W 3D 1L at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Honka are significantly better at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion than their overall form suggests.
SJK (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, SJK have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Honka's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Honka lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Honka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Honka 59% versus SJK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Honka 54% | SJK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Honka 1.36 xG and SJK 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Honka attack 1.105 / defence 0.991 | SJK attack 0.978 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.113. Data: 23 Honka games / 23 SJK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Honka 40% | Draw 35% | SJK 26%. Fair-value odds: Honka 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | SJK 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
SJK lead the H2H ledger, but Honka carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Honka as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Honka if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Honka 70% | SJK 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Honka vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Honka 40% | Draw 35% | SJK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Honka 1.36 / SJK 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Honka attack 1.105 / def 0.991 | SJK attack 0.978 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Honka (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Honka xG
Expected Goals
1.08
SJK xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Honka vs SJK kick off?
Honka vs SJK kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion.
What was the final score in Honka vs SJK?
Honka 0 - 0 SJK.
Where is Honka vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion.
What competition is Honka vs SJK part of?
Honka vs SJK is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Honka vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Honka a 40% chance of winning, SJK a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Honka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Honka vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Honka and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Honka vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and SJK?
Record (5 meetings): Honka 1W | Draws 1 | SJK 3W.
What form are Honka and SJK in?
Honka (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. SJK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Honka's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.98x) against Honka's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
The sample (23/23 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Honka Win
40%
2.53
35%
2.88
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Honka xG
Total xG
2.44
1.08
SJK xG
2.53
40%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Honka vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Honka and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Honka and 1.08 for SJK, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Honka vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Honka's recent record stands at 23W 13D 18L from 54 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Honka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 20L across 54 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Honka against 1.52 for SJK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Honka have managed 14W 7D 7L from 28 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SJK's away record stands at 10W 3D 15L across 28 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Honka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Honka are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.43 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Honka
Blended
SJK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Honka and SJK in coming into this match?
Honka have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while SJK have gone 24W 10D 20L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Honka at home or SJK away?
Honka's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Honka at home: 1.75 PPG; SJK away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Honka won 5-1 on 25 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Honka have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Honka
2
Draws
4
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and SJK?
From 8 meetings on record, Honka have won 2, SJK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Honka and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when SJK 1-2 Honka.
Who has won more matches between Honka and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Honka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Honka 61%, SJK 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Honka) and 36% (SJK).
On the defensive side: SJK in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Honka home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Honka play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Honka's recent matches and 32% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Honka vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Honka's recent games and 36% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Honka and SJK tend to score early?
Honka have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SJK in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Honka's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion, Regular Season - 2, as Honka and SJK drew 0-0 in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Honka 1.36 xG and SJK 1.08 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Honka fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SJK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Honka attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against SJK attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 23/23 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Honka 40% | Draw 35% | SJK 26%, with Honka to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Honka 54%, SJK 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Honka's trading profile (54 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
SJK's trading profile (54 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Honka 1.52 PPG, SJK 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Honka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.