SJK 2-1 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 39%, yet in-form Haka provide a compelling counter-argument — this SJK vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Haka travel to OmaSP Stadion to take on SJK. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 5 April 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SJK stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
SJK at OmaSP Stadion this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — SJK are significantly better at OmaSP Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Haka have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Haka — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SJK have won 0, Haka 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Haka winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SJK in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Haka in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 47% versus Haka 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 47% | Haka 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.54 xG and Haka 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.042 / defence 0.990 | Haka attack 1.010 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.460. Data: 22 SJK games / 22 Haka games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SJK 39% | Draw 25% | Haka 36%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Haka 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haka (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: SJK 70% | Haka 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 39% | Draw 25% | Haka 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG SJK 1.54 / Haka 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.042 / def 0.990 | Haka attack 1.010 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: SJK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Haka xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Haka kick off?
SJK vs Haka kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 5 April 2023 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Haka?
SJK 2 - 1 Haka.
Where is SJK vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Haka part of?
SJK vs Haka is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 39% chance of winning, Haka a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SJK and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Haka?
Record (1 meetings): SJK 0W | Draws 0 | Haka 1W.
What form are SJK and Haka in?
SJK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Haka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SJK's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
39%
2.54
25%
4.08
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
SJK xG
Total xG
3.00
1.46
Haka xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
8%
12.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are SJK and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for SJK and 1.46 for Haka, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, SJK have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 24W 11D 20L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Haka's form line: 24W 11D 20L from 55 games, 1.51 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: SJK on 1.51 PPG, Haka on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.85 PPG from 27 outings (14W 8D 5L).
On the road, Haka have gone 12W 5D 10L from 27 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SJK are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.35 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
Haka
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Haka in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 24W 11D 20L in their last 55 games (1.51 PPG), while Haka have gone 24W 11D 20L in their last 55 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Haka away?
SJK's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.85 PPG; Haka away: 1.52 PPG.
Have SJK or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Haka in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when SJK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting Haka specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SJK
2
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 5, Haka have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Haka 2-3 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Haka?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 63%, Haka 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (SJK) and 52% (Haka). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haka in 41%; Haka in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of SJK's recent matches and 41% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SJK vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of SJK's matches and 52% of Haka's.
Do SJK and Haka tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Haka in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Haka 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Haka 2-1 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.54 xG and Haka 1.46 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Haka attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 39% | Draw 25% | Haka 36%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 47%, Haka 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Haka's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.51 PPG, Haka 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.