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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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HJK Helsinki and Ilves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HJK Helsinki and Ilves finished level at 2-2 at Bolt Arena, Championship Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HJK Helsinki 2.25 xG and Ilves 2.00 xG, a combined 4.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HJK Helsinki attack 1.61 / defence 1.06 against Ilves attack 1.15 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it HJK Helsinki 44% | Draw 21% | Ilves 35%, with HJK Helsinki to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HJK Helsinki 65%, Ilves 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HJK Helsinki's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Ilves's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — HJK Helsinki 1.78 PPG, Ilves 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. HJK Helsinki (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights