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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant HJK Helsinki run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Ilves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HJK Helsinki beat Ilves 5-1 at Bolt Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting HJK Helsinki 1.28 xG and Ilves 2.08 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. HJK Helsinki beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ilves landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HJK Helsinki attack 1.20 / defence 1.11 against Ilves attack 1.17 / defence 0.69, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it HJK Helsinki 23% | Draw 22% | Ilves 55%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a HJK Helsinki win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HJK Helsinki 62%, Ilves 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

HJK Helsinki's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Ilves's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — HJK Helsinki 1.71 PPG, Ilves 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the HJK Helsinki win broke the near-deadlock. HJK Helsinki (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights