HIFK Helsinki 0-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ilves at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
HIFK Helsinki welcome Ilves to Bolt Arena in Veikkausliiga (matchday 13). Kick-off is Monday 4 July 2022 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, HIFK Helsinki have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
HIFK Helsinki at home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Ilves — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ilves's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Ilves's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of HIFK Helsinki's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, HIFK Helsinki have won 1, Ilves 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 22 Jun 2022, ended HIFK Helsinki 1–0 Ilves — a HIFK Helsinki win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
HIFK Helsinki in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Ilves in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — HIFK Helsinki 40% versus Ilves 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (HIFK Helsinki 40% | Ilves 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects HIFK Helsinki 0.98 xG and Ilves 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: HIFK Helsinki attack 0.737 / defence 1.343 | Ilves attack 0.925 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.395. HIFK Helsinki's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. HIFK Helsinki's defence rating of 1.343 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ilves's projected output up. Data: built from HIFK Helsinki's last 33 games and Ilves's last 33.
Result probabilities: HIFK Helsinki 21% | Draw 24% | Ilves 55%. Fair-value odds: HIFK Helsinki 4.73 | Draw 4.14 | Ilves 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (HIFK Helsinki's last 10 home games and Ilves's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: HIFK Helsinki 50% (last 10 home games) | Ilves 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 13 | Venue: Bolt Arena • Kick-off: Monday 4 July 2022 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: HIFK Helsinki 21% | Draw 24% | Ilves 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG HIFK Helsinki 0.98 / Ilves 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: HIFK Helsinki attack 0.737 / def 1.343 | Ilves attack 0.925 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Ilves (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
HIFK Helsinki xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Ilves xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves FAQs
What time does HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves kick off?
HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 4 July 2022 at Bolt Arena.
What was the final score in HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves?
HIFK Helsinki 0 - 1 Ilves.
Where is HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Bolt Arena.
What competition is HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves part of?
HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 13) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives HIFK Helsinki a 21% chance of winning, Ilves a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both HIFK Helsinki and Ilves will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates HIFK Helsinki's attack at 0.74x the league average against Ilves's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus HIFK Helsinki's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from HIFK Helsinki's last 33 games and Ilves's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
21%
4.73
24%
4.14
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
HIFK Helsinki xG
Total xG
2.72
1.73
Ilves xG
4.73
21%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
4%
26.79
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are HIFK Helsinki and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for HIFK Helsinki and 1.73 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
HIFK Helsinki come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 11D 17L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.34 PPG from 38 outings (15W 6D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: HIFK Helsinki on 1.08 PPG, Ilves on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
HIFK Helsinki's home form reads 4W 4D 11L across their last 19 home games, a 0.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 0.74 points per game from their last 19 away games (3W 5D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ilves's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
HIFK Helsinki are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.21 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
HIFK Helsinki
Blended
Ilves
Blended
HIFK Helsinki (Home) vs Ilves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
HIFK Helsinki
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves Form FAQs
What form are HIFK Helsinki and Ilves in coming into this match?
HIFK Helsinki have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Ilves have gone 15W 6D 17L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — HIFK Helsinki at home or Ilves away?
HIFK Helsinki's home record (0.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — HIFK Helsinki at home: 0.84 PPG; Ilves away: 0.74 PPG.
Have HIFK Helsinki or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
HIFK Helsinki have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ilves in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2021. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 28 September 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Ilves have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Sep 2022, when Ilves won HIFK Helsinki 1-5 Ilves.
HIFK Helsinki's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
HIFK Helsinki
1
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between HIFK Helsinki and Ilves?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, HIFK Helsinki have won 1, Ilves have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did HIFK Helsinki and Ilves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 September 2022: HIFK Helsinki 1-5 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between HIFK Helsinki and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
HIFK Helsinki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — HIFK Helsinki 47%, Ilves 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (HIFK Helsinki) and 53% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: HIFK Helsinki have failed to score in 37% of games; Ilves in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = HIFK Helsinki home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ HIFK Helsinki vs Ilves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in HIFK Helsinki and Ilves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of HIFK Helsinki's recent matches and 58% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are HIFK Helsinki and Ilves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of HIFK Helsinki's recent games and 53% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do HIFK Helsinki and Ilves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of HIFK Helsinki's recent matches and 68% of Ilves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out HIFK Helsinki 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat HIFK Helsinki 0-1 at Bolt Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting HIFK Helsinki 0.98 xG and Ilves 1.73 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. HIFK Helsinki fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of HIFK Helsinki attack 0.74 / defence 1.34 against Ilves attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it HIFK Helsinki 21% | Draw 24% | Ilves 55%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (HIFK Helsinki 40%, Ilves 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
HIFK Helsinki's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ilves's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — HIFK Helsinki 1.08 PPG, Ilves 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. HIFK Helsinki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.