Haka 1-2 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 41%, yet in-form VPS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Haka vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tehtaan kenttä plays host to Haka versus VPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Haka (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haka have posted 3W 7D 0L at Tehtaan kenttä — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VPS have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, VPS have posted 9W 0D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. VPS are 0.90 PPG clear of Haka in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (2.80 vs 1.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Haka lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2023, ended 1–4 with VPS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
VPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 62% versus VPS 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 57% | VPS 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.40 xG and VPS 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.013 / defence 1.001 | VPS attack 1.012 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.213. Data: 22 Haka games / 22 VPS games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Haka 41% | Draw 27% | VPS 33%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | VPS 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haka as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VPS (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Haka 70% | VPS 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 41% | Draw 27% | VPS 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Haka 1.40 / VPS 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.013 / def 1.001 | VPS attack 1.012 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Haka (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.23
VPS xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs VPS kick off?
Haka vs VPS kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs VPS?
Haka 1 - 2 VPS.
Where is Haka vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs VPS part of?
Haka vs VPS is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 41% chance of winning, VPS a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Haka and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and VPS?
Record (4 meetings): Haka 1W | Draws 1 | VPS 2W.
What form are Haka and VPS in?
Haka (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. VPS (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Haka's attack rating (1.01) and VPS's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VPS's attack (1.01x) against Haka's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.74
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Haka xG
Total xG
2.63
1.23
VPS xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Haka and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Haka and 1.23 for VPS, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Haka have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 21W 17D 18L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS's form line: 29W 8D 19L from 56 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Haka against 1.70 for VPS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Haka have posted 1.71 PPG from 28 outings (12W 12D 4L).
On the road, VPS have gone 17W 3D 8L from 28 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haka are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.68 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
VPS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and VPS in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 21W 17D 18L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while VPS have gone 29W 8D 19L in their last 56 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.71 PPG; VPS away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Haka or VPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, VPS in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 26 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haka won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haka have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haka
1
Draws
6
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 3, VPS have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haka and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2025, when VPS 1-0 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 75%, VPS 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Haka) and 54% (VPS).
On the defensive side: VPS in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play VPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Haka's games and 43% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Haka's recent games and 54% of VPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and VPS tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, VPS in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VPS defy the odds to beat Haka 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Haka 1-2 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.40 xG and VPS 1.23 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against VPS attack 1.01 / defence 0.96, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 41% | Draw 27% | VPS 33%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual VPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 57%, VPS 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
VPS's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.43 PPG, VPS 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.