Mariehamn 3-2 EIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs EIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Mariehamn welcome EIF to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mariehamn stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mariehamn have posted 2W 3D 5L at Wiklöf Holding Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.57 xG and EIF 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.949 / defence 1.017 | EIF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.213. Data: 22 Mariehamn games / 0 EIF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 49% | Draw 26% | EIF 25%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | EIF 4.00. Mariehamn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs EIF | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 49% | Draw 26% | EIF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Mariehamn 1.57 / EIF 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.949 / def 1.017 | EIF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.05
EIF xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs EIF kick off?
Mariehamn vs EIF kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs EIF?
Mariehamn 3 - 2 EIF.
Where is Mariehamn vs EIF being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs EIF part of?
Mariehamn vs EIF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs EIF?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 49% chance of winning, EIF a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs EIF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mariehamn and EIF will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs EIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and EIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and EIF in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Mariehamn home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.95x the league average against EIF's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, EIF's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.88
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.62
1.05
EIF xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
5%
19.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs EIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and EIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.05 for EIF, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs EIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Pre-Season
EIF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Mariehamn have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Mariehamn won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting EIF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Mariehamn
0
Draws
0
EIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and EIF?
From 3 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 3, EIF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and EIF last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2024, when Mariehamn 3-0 EIF.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and EIF?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / EIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Mariehamn edge out EIF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat EIF 3-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.57 xG and EIF 1.05 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mariehamn beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. EIF outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against EIF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 22/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 49% | Draw 26% | EIF 25%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.