🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Kooteepee defy the odds to beat Haka 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kooteepee beat Haka 1-2 at Tehtaan kenttä, Relegation Round - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 2.11 xG and Kooteepee 1.47 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Haka fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Kooteepee attack 0.77 / defence 1.49, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haka 52% | Draw 22% | Kooteepee 26%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Kooteepee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 62%, Kooteepee 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haka's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Kooteepee's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Haka 0.65 PPG, Kooteepee 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kooteepee win broke the near-deadlock. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights