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Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Gnistan 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SJK beat Gnistan 3-4 at Mustapekka Areena, Championship Round - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.67 xG and SJK 1.95 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Gnistan beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SJK outscored their 1.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against SJK attack 1.18 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gnistan 33% | Draw 23% | SJK 44%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 64%, SJK 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gnistan's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

SJK's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gnistan 1.31 PPG, SJK 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. Gnistan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SJK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights