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Veikkausliiga · Championship Round - 5

Kick-off

Sun 19 Oct 2025

14:00

Venue

Mustapekka Areena

Competition

Veikkausliiga

Finland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

SJK Win

33%

Gnistan

3.05

23%

Draw

4.30

44%

SJK

2.27

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

8.8%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

8.5%

Away win

2 – 1

7.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.67

Gnistan xG

Total xG

3.61

1.95

SJK xG

33%
23%
44%
GnistanDrawSJK

3.05

33%

Home win

4.30

23%

Draw

2.27

44%

Away win

Goals Markets

88%

Over 1.5

1.14

12%

Under 1.5

8.33

70%

Over 2.5

1.43

30%

Under 2.5

3.33

49%

Over 3.5

2.04

51%

Under 3.5

1.96

30%

Over 4.5

3.33

70%

Under 4.5

1.43

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

70%

BTTS Yes

1.42

30%

BTTS No

3.37

Clean Sheet

14%

Gnistan

6.99

19%

SJK

5.30

Win to Nil

5%

Gnistan

21.35

8%

SJK

12.05

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.7 5.3 5.1 3.3 1.6 0.6
1 4.5 8.8 8.5 5.5 2.7 1.0
2 3.8 7.3 7.1 4.6 2.2 0.9
3 2.1 4.1 3.9 2.6 1.2 0.5
4 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2
5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.667
λ Away (xG) 1.945
Total xG 3.612
League avg home goals 1.674
League avg away goals 1.653
Gnistan attack strength 0.951
Gnistan defence strength 0.998
SJK attack strength 1.180
SJK defence strength 1.048
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 44 / 44