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Last-gasp drama as Gnistan snatch the points — Gnistan 4-2 Mariehamn.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gnistan found a late winner to edge Mariehamn 4-2 at Markku.fi Areena, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. It was 1-0 at the break, with 5 further goals after it. Scorers: S. Ylatupa (6') · A. Akinyemi (51', 71') · A. Stroud (53') · W. Nunez (79') · D. Perez (90'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 2.22 xG and Mariehamn 0.80 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Gnistan beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mariehamn outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Mariehamn attack 0.64 / defence 1.28, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gnistan 68% | Draw 21% | Mariehamn 11%, with Gnistan to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 58%, Mariehamn 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gnistan's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 73% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Mariehamn's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 73% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gnistan 1.12 PPG, Mariehamn 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gnistan win broke the near-deadlock. Gnistan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand. With the decisive goal arriving late, the fixture spent most of its length tracking closer to expectation than the final scoreline suggests.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments