Most Likely Outcome
Gnistan Win
68%
1.46
21%
4.82
11%
9.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Gnistan xG
Total xG
3.02
0.80
Mariehamn xG
GnistanDrawMariehamn
1.46
68%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
9.29
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
11%
9.22
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
1%
85.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
2.221
λ Away (xG)
0.798
Total xG
3.019
League avg home goals
1.515
League avg away goals
1.159
Gnistan attack strength
1.144
Gnistan defence strength
1.071
Mariehamn attack strength
0.643
Mariehamn defence strength
1.281
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
36 / 36