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Ilves cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gnistan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ilves beat Gnistan 1-3 at Mustapekka Areena, Championship Round - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.36 xG and Ilves 1.87 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ilves outscored their 1.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Ilves attack 1.13 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gnistan 27% | Draw 24% | Ilves 48%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 64%, Ilves 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gnistan's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Ilves's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Gnistan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights