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Veikkausliiga · Championship Round - 7

Kick-off

Sat 25 Oct 2025

15:00

Venue

Mustapekka Areena

Competition

Veikkausliiga

Finland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Ilves Win

27%

Gnistan

3.68

24%

Draw

4.10

48%

Ilves

2.06

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

9.4%

Away win

0 – 1

7.4%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.36

Gnistan xG

Total xG

3.23

1.87

Ilves xG

27%
24%
48%
GnistanDrawIlves

3.68

27%

Home win

4.10

24%

Draw

2.06

48%

Away win

Goals Markets

83%

Over 1.5

1.20

17%

Under 1.5

5.88

63%

Over 2.5

1.59

37%

Under 2.5

2.70

40%

Over 3.5

2.50

60%

Under 3.5

1.67

22%

Over 4.5

4.55

78%

Under 4.5

1.28

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

64%

BTTS Yes

1.57

36%

BTTS No

2.76

Clean Sheet

15%

Gnistan

6.47

26%

Ilves

3.90

Win to Nil

4%

Gnistan

23.81

12%

Ilves

8.06

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.0 7.4 6.9 4.3 2.0 0.7
1 5.4 10.1 9.4 5.8 2.7 1.0
2 3.7 6.9 6.4 4.0 1.9 0.7
3 1.7 3.1 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.3
4 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.362
λ Away (xG) 1.867
Total xG 3.229
League avg home goals 1.674
League avg away goals 1.653
Gnistan attack strength 0.952
Gnistan defence strength 0.998
Ilves attack strength 1.132
Ilves defence strength 0.855
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 44 / 44