FF Jaro 2-2 Turku PS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as FF Jaro take on Turku PS.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FF Jaro welcome Turku PS to Project Liv Arena in Veikkausliiga (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FF Jaro — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FF Jaro at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 2 games, Turku PS have recorded 2W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Turku PS — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FF Jaro 1.14 xG and Turku PS 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FF Jaro attack 0.834 / defence 0.991 | Turku PS attack 0.836 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.185. Data: built from FF Jaro's last 26 games and Turku PS's last 4. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FF Jaro 36% | Draw 36% | Turku PS 28%. Fair-value odds: FF Jaro 2.79 | Draw 2.75 | Turku PS 3.60. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — low conviction — though recent form (FF Jaro's last 10 home games and Turku PS's last 2 games) averaging 3.6 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's sample (FF Jaro 26 games, Turku PS 4) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FF Jaro vs Turku PS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 5 | Venue: Project Liv Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FF Jaro 36% | Draw 36% | Turku PS 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG FF Jaro 1.14 / Turku PS 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: FF Jaro attack 0.834 / def 0.991 | Turku PS attack 0.836 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
FF Jaro xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Turku PS xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FF Jaro vs Turku PS FAQs
What time does FF Jaro vs Turku PS kick off?
FF Jaro vs Turku PS kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Project Liv Arena.
What was the final score in FF Jaro vs Turku PS?
FF Jaro 2 - 2 Turku PS.
Where is FF Jaro vs Turku PS being played?
The match is being played at Project Liv Arena.
What competition is FF Jaro vs Turku PS part of?
FF Jaro vs Turku PS is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 5) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win FF Jaro vs Turku PS?
Our statistical model gives FF Jaro a 36% chance of winning, Turku PS a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in FF Jaro vs Turku PS?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FF Jaro and Turku PS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will FF Jaro vs Turku PS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FF Jaro's attack at 0.83x the league average against Turku PS's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Turku PS's attack versus FF Jaro's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FF Jaro's last 26 games and Turku PS's last 4, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.79
36%
2.75
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
FF Jaro xG
Total xG
2.12
0.98
Turku PS xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
9%
11.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FF Jaro vs Turku PS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FF Jaro vs Turku PS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are FF Jaro and Turku PS expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for FF Jaro and 0.98 for Turku PS, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for FF Jaro vs Turku PS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FF Jaro's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five.
Turku PS, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FF Jaro on 3.00 PPG, Turku PS on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
FF Jaro are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Turku PS are on 3.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. FF Jaro's scoring rate against Turku PS's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: FF Jaro have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Turku PS in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FF Jaro
Early Season
Turku PS
Early Season
FF Jaro (Home) vs Turku PS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FF Jaro
Early Season
Turku PS
Early Season
❓ FF Jaro vs Turku PS Form FAQs
What form are FF Jaro and Turku PS in coming into this match?
FF Jaro have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Turku PS have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have FF Jaro or Turku PS been keeping clean sheets recently?
FF Jaro have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Turku PS in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2026. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
1
FF Jaro
1
Draws
1
Turku PS
Recent Meetings
❓ FF Jaro vs Turku PS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and Turku PS?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, FF Jaro have won 1, Turku PS have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FF Jaro and Turku PS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Turku PS 0-1 FF Jaro.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FF Jaro home games / Turku PS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FF Jaro vs Turku PS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FF Jaro and Turku PS matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FF Jaro's games and 50% of Turku PS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FF Jaro and Turku PS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FF Jaro's matches and 100% of Turku PS's.
FF Jaro and Turku PS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FF Jaro and Turku PS finished level at 2-2 at Project Liv Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.14 xG and Turku PS 0.98 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FF Jaro beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Turku PS outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.83 / defence 0.99 against Turku PS attack 0.84 / defence 1.09, drawn from 26/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 36% | Draw 36% | Turku PS 28%, with FF Jaro to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 100%, Turku PS 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FF Jaro 3.00 PPG, Turku PS 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FF Jaro shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Turku PS managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.