FF Jaro 0-4 SJK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SJK at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FF Jaro vs SJK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Project Liv Arena plays host to FF Jaro versus SJK in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Monday 18 August 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
FF Jaro's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FF Jaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FF Jaro at Project Liv Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SJK have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SJK away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SJK arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FF Jaro have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SJK in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FF Jaro, 1 for SJK and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2025, ended 1–3 with SJK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FF Jaro half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
SJK half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FF Jaro 52% and SJK 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FF Jaro 48% | SJK 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FF Jaro 1.43 xG and SJK 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FF Jaro attack 0.777 / defence 1.008 | SJK attack 1.070 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.550. FF Jaro's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 FF Jaro games / 41 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FF Jaro 32% | Draw 26% | SJK 42%. Fair-value odds: FF Jaro 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | SJK 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SJK are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: FF Jaro 60% | SJK 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FF Jaro vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Project Liv Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 Aug 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FF Jaro 32% | Draw 26% | SJK 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG FF Jaro 1.43 / SJK 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: FF Jaro attack 0.777 / def 1.008 | SJK attack 1.070 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.550 • Poisson stance: SJK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
FF Jaro xG
Expected Goals
1.67
SJK xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FF Jaro vs SJK kick off?
FF Jaro vs SJK kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 18 August 2025 at Project Liv Arena.
What was the final score in FF Jaro vs SJK?
FF Jaro 0 - 4 SJK.
Where is FF Jaro vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Project Liv Arena.
What competition is FF Jaro vs SJK part of?
FF Jaro vs SJK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win FF Jaro vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives FF Jaro a 32% chance of winning, SJK a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in FF Jaro vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FF Jaro and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will FF Jaro vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and SJK?
Record (1 meetings): FF Jaro 0W | Draws 0 | SJK 1W.
What form are FF Jaro and SJK in?
FF Jaro (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. SJK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FF Jaro's attack at 0.78x the league average against SJK's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SJK's attack (1.07x) against FF Jaro's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 19/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
32%
3.15
26%
3.84
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
FF Jaro xG
Total xG
3.10
1.67
SJK xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
6%
16.75
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FF Jaro vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FF Jaro and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for FF Jaro and 1.67 for SJK, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FF Jaro vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, FF Jaro have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 7W 4D 10L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FF Jaro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 11W 5D 5L from 21 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FF Jaro.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FF Jaro have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
On the road, SJK have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FF Jaro are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.95 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK in 76%.
Last 21 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FF Jaro
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FF Jaro and SJK in coming into this match?
FF Jaro have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while SJK have gone 11W 5D 5L in their last 21 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FF Jaro at home or SJK away?
SJK's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FF Jaro at home: 1.20 PPG; SJK away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-4 on 18 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FF Jaro have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
FF Jaro
2
Draws
2
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and SJK?
From 5 meetings on record, FF Jaro have won 1, SJK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FF Jaro and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when FF Jaro 1-1 SJK.
Who has won more matches between FF Jaro and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FF Jaro see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for FF Jaro, 80% for SJK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FF Jaro and 80% for SJK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FF Jaro have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FF Jaro home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FF Jaro play SJK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FF Jaro's games and 80% of SJK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FF Jaro vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FF Jaro's matches and 80% of SJK's.
Do FF Jaro and SJK tend to score early?
FF Jaro have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, SJK in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SJK run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FF Jaro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat FF Jaro 0-4 at Project Liv Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.43 xG and SJK 1.67 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FF Jaro fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SJK outscored their 1.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.78 / defence 1.01 against SJK attack 1.07 / defence 1.16, drawn from 19/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 32% | Draw 26% | SJK 42%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 48%, SJK 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FF Jaro's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SJK's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FF Jaro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SJK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.