🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Mariehamn edge out FF Jaro 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mariehamn beat FF Jaro 2-3 at Project Liv Arena, Relegation Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.48 xG and Mariehamn 1.57 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Mariehamn outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.69 / defence 1.20 against Mariehamn attack 0.80 / defence 1.29, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 35% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 39%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 58%, Mariehamn 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FF Jaro's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Mariehamn's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FF Jaro 1.19 PPG, Mariehamn 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. FF Jaro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights