🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as FF Jaro defy the odds to beat Haka 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FF Jaro beat Haka 2-1 at Project Liv Arena, Relegation Round - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.31 xG and Haka 1.68 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.69 / defence 1.20 against Haka attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 29% | Draw 26% | Haka 45%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FF Jaro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 59%, Haka 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FF Jaro's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Haka's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FF Jaro arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FF Jaro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights