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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AC Oulu cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over VPS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Oulu beat VPS 2-0 at Raatin stadion, Relegation Round - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.48 xG and VPS 2.03 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. VPS landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.90 / defence 1.25 against VPS attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 27% | Draw 23% | VPS 50%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual AC Oulu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 60%, VPS 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Oulu's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

VPS's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.00 PPG, VPS 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. VPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights