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Veikkausliiga · Relegation Round - 4

Kick-off

Sat 4 Oct 2025

13:00

Venue

Raatin stadion

Competition

Veikkausliiga

Finland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

VPS Win

27%

AC Oulu

3.67

23%

Draw

4.34

50%

VPS

2.01

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 2

9.1%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

9.0%

Draw

2 – 2

6.7%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.48

AC Oulu xG

Total xG

3.51

2.03

VPS xG

27%
23%
50%
AC OuluDrawVPS

3.67

27%

Home win

4.34

23%

Draw

2.01

50%

Away win

Goals Markets

87%

Over 1.5

1.15

13%

Under 1.5

7.69

68%

Over 2.5

1.47

32%

Under 2.5

3.12

47%

Over 3.5

2.13

53%

Under 3.5

1.89

28%

Over 4.5

3.57

72%

Under 4.5

1.39

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

68%

BTTS Yes

1.47

32%

BTTS No

3.12

Clean Sheet

13%

AC Oulu

7.63

23%

VPS

4.39

Win to Nil

4%

AC Oulu

27.97

11%

VPS

8.85

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.0 6.1 6.2 4.2 2.1 0.9
1 4.4 9.0 9.1 6.2 3.1 1.3
2 3.3 6.6 6.7 4.6 2.3 0.9
3 1.6 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.1 0.5
4 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2
5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.480
λ Away (xG) 2.032
Total xG 3.512
League avg home goals 1.673
League avg away goals 1.653
AC Oulu attack strength 0.896
AC Oulu defence strength 1.253
VPS attack strength 0.981
VPS defence strength 0.987
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 44 / 44